79. Obama is a president. What is there for us in it?

The people of the United States have not failed. In their need they have registered a mandate that they want direct, vigorous action. They have asked for discipline and direction under leadership. They have made me the present instrument of their wishes. In the spirit of the gift I will take it.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt, First Inaugural Speech

1. The joy of democracy

So, Obama has won. No surprise to me at all, how could those people

possibly ever win??

The blogoshere is rejoicing, bloggers-physicists from the other side of Atlantics seem quite happy (with a small exception of Lubos Motl, who is in Europe now anyway). Do they have good reasons for that? Turning off emotions, let us stop for a moment and see – what is it for us in the fact that Obama became 44th president of United States? By us – I mean a) Europeans (both scientists and non-scientists) and b) physicists (both europeans and not).

2. Global financial crisis

(Since it is close to my heart and also very much concerns us on this side of Atlantics.) What Obama got by inheritance from George W. Bush is first of all US economy that is far from being in the best shape: possible recession, the most serious for the last 20 years, unemployment rate, highest for the last 5 years, quite dangerously decreasing GDP all perfectly contribute into the development of financial turmoil.

The situation is somewhat similar to the Global Depression of 1930s, so, naturally, Obama’s strategy is somewhat similar to the one of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The latter included a) massive financial support of the economy, b) reformation of financial institutes responsible for the regulation of markets, c) government’s investments into road-building and other infrastructure projects to create new jobs. The Obama’s program includes the same three refreshing points:  a)  allocation of 200 bill. US dollars to support the economy, b) extension of Federal Reserve’s powers, the one Paulson was proposing back in March as I understand, and c)  creating new jobs through infrastructure projects.

What might also especially interest us as scientists is that he also proposes to invest 150 bill. US dollars into new technologies (during 10 year term), giving rise to other 5 mill. jobs in high-tech. This is definitely a step in the right direction. However, its effect on the overall economy can be easily cancelled by a certain change in the tax policy as well as decisions to support people having problems to pay out their mortgages and extend medical insurance program.

The problems he is facing with are maybe much more serious than the ones Roosevelt had to deal with in 1930s. The reason, I think, is that back in 1930s, Europe would survive if US economy were to collapse (although the Big Crunch would be noticable, indeed). Today, if US economy is to collapse, the whole world will collapse. Whether we want it or not, the total worth of US economy is larger than the worths of three next economies summed. On the other hand, from my point of view Obama’s strategy somewhat resembles the one by Roosevelt, and I don’t honestly see how the new situation in the world is taken into account, in particular, at which step the non-US part of the world is taken into account. US is not in the equilibrum with thermal bath (Antanta) anymore, US is the thermal bath, and the non-US part of the world is the test particle (well, I am exaggerating – all the effects are in fact mesoscopic, but you’ve got the idea ).

In the mean time, the world was happy to see Obama has won but than quickly got back to reality. First of all, Asia behaved like most of US bloggers, it cried of happiness: on Nov 5 MSCI Asia Pacific grew up to 4%, HSI (HK) – to 3.17%, Kospi (S. Korea) – 2.44%, Shanghai Composite – 3.16%, Nikkei – 4.46%. More realistic Europe on the other hand started to grow, but than dropped again: in overall, UK FTSE 100 and DAX had 2% decrease, CAC 40 – 1.5% down. No miracles, the fundamental reason for the world’s economy to grow is not yet found.

3. Science

Let us now see how Obama is going to treat us – physicists, mathematicians, biologists, etc. during next 4 years:-) Cannot help saying, W. was absolutely, disastrously horrible, but let ashes be to ashes.

While McCain was silent as a fish regarding science funding, Obama did mention science occasionally – good sign. As Leo Kadanoff wrote in Nature Physics recently, both presidential candidates rejected the Bush administration’s weaknesses in scientific honesty; both wanted to have better scientific advisors in the office (will they want to listen to them?), it looked like both encouraged innovation, at least, they have said so.  Obama would invest into science via government programs, he also proposed a doubling of basic science budget (!); McCain wanted mostly to support industry and applied science. Both supported education: Obama – education of citizens, McCain – training of workforce. My final impression is that both did not have a clear program how to support science in US, and both hardly asked for an advice from people who really know how to help science in US.

So… as I said, both did not have a clear program how to boost innovation and help us, egg-headed. I think, everything will strongly depend on how much Obama is open for advice from people who are outsiders for a man of his culture. Honestly, I think, he is a somewhat stubborn guy, Real Man type, if you want, extremely smart, having his own opinion about everything and sticking to it. And his opinion on what is critical may be well wrong. We will see.

Update: According to New Scientist, “Obama actively consults a cadre of research heavyweights, including Nobel prizewinners and former advisers to presidents Carter and Clinton”. Very well, I hope my conclusions are wrong!

Update: Although Obama have decided not to debate science issues in Sciencedebate 2008, he answered the set of 14 quesions posed by a consortium of scientific organisations.

Update: New Scientist is reviewing what Obama has ever said regarding science funding. The especially interesting quote reads:

My administration will increase funding for basic research in physical and life sciences, mathematics, and engineering at a rate that would double basic research budgets over the next decade. We will increase research grants for early-career researchers to keep young scientists entering these fields. We will increase support for high-risk, high-payoff research portfolios at our science agencies.

Index quotes via Gazeta.ru